Introduction: The emergence and spread of the drug phenomenon, as one of the most important and complex challenges facing human society in the present era, has acquired wide dimensions. This problem not only causes irreparable damage to the physical and mental health of individuals through addiction, but also, by imposing heavy economic and social costs, weakens and depreciates the material and human capital of societies in a deep and sustainable way. The amount of drugs discovered, as one of the key indicators in the fight against organized crime and in measuring the activities of the police and intelligence agencies, has always been the subject of serious attention by security and research institutions. In this study, an attempt has been made to analyze the amount of drug discovery as a function of macro-indicators of socio-economic development.
Methods: This research is quantitative in nature and has been conducted based on time series data for a period of 33 years, from 1991 to 2023. To analyze and estimate the short-term and long-term relationships between the variables under study, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model has been used. All calculations and estimates related to modeling have been made using specialized Microfit software. The economic, social, and security data required for analysis have been collected and compiled from official and reliable sources such as the Statistical Center of Iran, the World Bank, and the Anti-Narcotics Organization.
Findings: The results of the study clearly show that in the long run, the rate of drug seizures is significantly affected by a set of macroeconomic and social indicators. Growth in any of the following factors significantly increases the rate of drug seizures: inflation rate, urban population, labor force participation, literacy rate, and gross domestic product. In contrast, an increase in the rate of female labor force participation acts as a deterrent and is significantly associated with a decrease in the rate of drug seizures.
Conclusion Understanding the underlying factors that contribute to drug crime is the first step in designing an efficient and effective strategic plan to reduce and control it. Undoubtedly, several factors play a role in determining the rate of drug seizures and act as explanatory variables. These factors encompass a wide range of economic, social, psychological, cultural, and political dimensions. Based on the results obtained in this study, the rate of drug seizures in Iran, as an acute and prominent social issue, is influenced by a set of macro-indicators in the economic and social fields.